Dan & Phil Part 81: Now what?

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Ataraxia25
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Salted Caramel Deinking Fudge? Omg i want it, I need it in my mouth like right now.

The Colin mug!! I agree that it means something! A mug is a personal thing, so either he was making one for Dan or they just share mugs and that makes me soft!
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Wait, what is everybody talking about with this mug??
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For anyone confused
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^Thanks!
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Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:32 am
alittledizzy wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:41 pm I'm gonna throw out a theory for the liveshows: I think they will come back, because I think they're a very functional and low-effort way for Dan and Phil to convey things to us as a dedicated audience - and no matter how much you want to say Dan and Phil don't need to do things because they've already got financial stability, I do not believe they're at the point yet where they want to handwave things altogether. I think that if liveshows were going away entirely, they'd have ripped that bandaid off at the same time they told us about pinof and DAPG. Instead we got an emphatic reassurance that nothing else was changing, so for the moment I'm giving them some faith with that.

But I think we won't get liveshows until they've made a decision about what happens with DAPG, because I think they're not going to want to have to deal with a liveshow that's nothing but a flood of people asking about that and only that. I think once the channel is back, if it comes back, or they're ready to announce it won't come back at all, we'll get liveshows again - maybe not weekly, I'll give that concession, but on a regular basis.
I would agree. I think the live shows provide their most stable and consistent income stream as well and as you mention it’s such low effort. I reckon if you strip away all their other businesses, merch, and youtube, the livestream income pays for their core finances, so things like rent, utilities and food—so essentially the live shows are their 9 to 5 job, condensed down to 35-50min a week (with ample vacation time). Unless something changes with the payment model, I have to imagine they will continue in some form.
While I do agree that they probably won't kill liveshows altogether by announcing it and will just continue to use them as they please to announce things or solve any kind of communication issue, I don't agree with the bolded part. Liveshows for them in my opinion are money that come from extra hours at work, not the main income. It's been too unreliable especially in the past couple of years. If they are smart enough, and I think they are, they probably have investments in things that we don't even know about. It seems like a lot of old generation youtubers, especially in the UK, invested in properties and real estate and tangible assets that have a market. I'd be surprised if they didn't have part of their money invested outside their core businesses.

I think we can easily say that merchandising is their main income, along with Adsense money that they still get from all past videos. There's a reason why they don't do that many sponsorships compared to other people. So while I do think they don't mind the money from liveshows, I think it's less a concern (because again I do hope with the kind of net they have they were smart and invested it in something stable that is not tied only to their names)
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I hadn't even realized that it was the Colin mug until I read about it here, love that for me. How cute is that, though? I know they live together and share their possessions but there's something so heartwarming about Phil using such a personal thing as that mug and on top of that, he also really wanted us to know.
plinthofmylife wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:25 am BUT my current theory is that Phil already filmed in front of the bed for this week's video (he did say it would take awhile to change), but for the video after that, the AP background will be no longer a bed and will STILL be in the AP "set" room.

Phil just won't acknowledge it is the same room with some level of plausibility deniability with generic white walls and like...plants and a different angle (straight on the bed wall perhaps; no dresser visible). Thereby doing a very typical "we know you know but we're not going to talk about it" that has become the norm since 2017.
A very plausible theory, imo. Either that or he's gonna film in a room we haven't seen before, I can't see any other option, tbh.

I agree that he probably already filmed and I have a feeling he's gonna talk about the upcoming changes in the video, maybe saying 'tweet me what you wanna see as my new background ' and linking them to the tweet he posted yesterday. If he wanted to change it before filming the video, I think he would have posted that tweet way sooner.
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Phil's quite physically expressive and likes to move around a bit in his AP videos so I think his choice of seating will be important so as not to restrict him and maintain a relaxed feel. Other than that I dunno, it's still a weird concept to me that YouTube became this place where people curate sets to sit infront of and film :shrug: Oh how I wish that wasn't a thing. But we're here...so maybe it's just the place he's been looking for to put his David Boreanaz signed photo and David Shrigley thumb statue :lol:

- -

@idk loved your liveshow post!
I think liveshows are sadly on their way out too, but (hopefully) not quite dead yet. I think they'll probably remain infrequent, sporadic, short, and almost all business for a little while yet. I think they'd need some time to transition their longer-form communications and marketing away from liveshows to other places before cutting them off. And if Dan uploads solo again I can't imagine him doing it without liveshow discourse, at least initially. But I do think they'll stop for privacy, and Phil, reasons quite soon. I just hope they're upfront about it when they decide to stop them, rather than leaving anyone hanging with any false hope.
Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:32 am
alittledizzy wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:41 pm I'm gonna throw out a theory for the liveshows: I think they will come back, because I think they're a very functional and low-effort way for Dan and Phil to convey things to us as a dedicated audience - and no matter how much you want to say Dan and Phil don't need to do things because they've already got financial stability, I do not believe they're at the point yet where they want to handwave things altogether. I think that if liveshows were going away entirely, they'd have ripped that bandaid off at the same time they told us about pinof and DAPG. Instead we got an emphatic reassurance that nothing else was changing, so for the moment I'm giving them some faith with that.

But I think we won't get liveshows until they've made a decision about what happens with DAPG, because I think they're not going to want to have to deal with a liveshow that's nothing but a flood of people asking about that and only that. I think once the channel is back, if it comes back, or they're ready to announce it won't come back at all, we'll get liveshows again - maybe not weekly, I'll give that concession, but on a regular basis.
I would agree. I think the live shows provide their most stable and consistent income stream as well and as you mention it’s such low effort. I reckon if you strip away all their other businesses, merch, and youtube, the livestream income pays for their core finances, so things like rent, utilities and food—so essentially the live shows are their 9 to 5 job, condensed down to 35-50min a week (with ample vacation time). Unless something changes with the payment model, I have to imagine they will continue in some form.
I wonder how much the Props changes affect them? (x) I'm guessing, but I can't imagine that being a beneficial change for D+P - so any financial (or otherwise) incentive for them to stay on the platform may not be what it once was. But I don't think the (relatively) small amount of money (for them!) tied to their liveshows would be the driving factor in their decision on them anyway, as they have other income streams that are much more lucrative.

- -

Also, a recent-ish interview that I don't think's been posted here - they truly are masters at saying nothing at all -
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Did anyone reply to his tweet with ideas for his background? I'm sure he'll already have something in mind, but wondering what sort of thing people here think he should have?
There was a lot of Corgis, Live Plants and Dan as suggestions when I looked at the comments yesterday :P
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Also to the person asking if people still did liveshows, I see them a lot on Instagram these days, and livestreams for gaming, but that's it.
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I saw a lot of suggestions for a cute set of cactus-shaped string lights, also some corgi-shaped ones. A few people mentioned Lion, I did too cos it might be nice to still have him there, but I also said to use stuff that reflects him even if it’s not what we expect and I saw one or two others say that sort of thing, idk what he’ll see or take on board, though. So many suggestions of plants, dogs etc, he’s probably got the message to keep it cute and on AP-brand (create a dystopian hellscape if you want to, Philip, it’ll be fine).
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noodlebum wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:15 pm Did anyone reply to his tweet with ideas for his background? I'm sure he'll already have something in mind, but wondering what sort of thing people here think he should have?
There was a lot of Corgis, Live Plants and Dan as suggestions when I looked at the comments yesterday :P
Here was my suggestion:
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liola wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:16 am
Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:32 am
alittledizzy wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:41 pm I'm gonna throw out a theory for the liveshows: I think they will come back, because I think they're a very functional and low-effort way for Dan and Phil to convey things to us as a dedicated audience - and no matter how much you want to say Dan and Phil don't need to do things because they've already got financial stability, I do not believe they're at the point yet where they want to handwave things altogether. I think that if liveshows were going away entirely, they'd have ripped that bandaid off at the same time they told us about pinof and DAPG. Instead we got an emphatic reassurance that nothing else was changing, so for the moment I'm giving them some faith with that.

But I think we won't get liveshows until they've made a decision about what happens with DAPG, because I think they're not going to want to have to deal with a liveshow that's nothing but a flood of people asking about that and only that. I think once the channel is back, if it comes back, or they're ready to announce it won't come back at all, we'll get liveshows again - maybe not weekly, I'll give that concession, but on a regular basis.
I would agree. I think the live shows provide their most stable and consistent income stream as well and as you mention it’s such low effort. I reckon if you strip away all their other businesses, merch, and youtube, the livestream income pays for their core finances, so things like rent, utilities and food—so essentially the live shows are their 9 to 5 job, condensed down to 35-50min a week (with ample vacation time). Unless something changes with the payment model, I have to imagine they will continue in some form.
While I do agree that they probably won't kill liveshows altogether by announcing it and will just continue to use them as they please to announce things or solve any kind of communication issue, I don't agree with the bolded part. Liveshows for them in my opinion are money that come from extra hours at work, not the main income. It's been too unreliable especially in the past couple of years. If they are smart enough, and I think they are, they probably have investments in things that we don't even know about. It seems like a lot of old generation youtubers, especially in the UK, invested in properties and real estate and tangible assets that have a market. I'd be surprised if they didn't have part of their money invested outside their core businesses.

I think we can easily say that merchandising is their main income, along with Adsense money that they still get from all past videos. There's a reason why they don't do that many sponsorships compared to other people. So while I do think they don't mind the money from liveshows, I think it's less a concern (because again I do hope with the kind of net they have they were smart and invested it in something stable that is not tied only to their names)
No doubt they are fully diversified and have plenty of income streams that are lucrative more so than liveshow profits. My point though is that with Adsense driven by an ever changing algorithm and their merch store with large amounts of overhead and seasonal sales fluctuations, the live shows provide a stability in a sense that if everything else went to shit they could always jump on younow a couple times a month and still (with reasonable assumption) finance their current needs/lifestyle. I suppose it’s semantics, but that’s what I was driving towards.
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Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:52 pm
No doubt they are fully diversified and have plenty of income streams that are lucrative more so than liveshow profits. My point though is that with Adsense driven by an ever changing algorithm and their merch store with large amounts of overhead and seasonal sales fluctuations, the live shows provide a stability in a sense that if everything else went to shit they could always jump on younow a couple times a month and still (with reasonable assumption) finance their current needs/lifestyle. I suppose it’s semantics, but that’s what I was driving towards.
What kind of figure do people think they make from live shows on each platform? Especially when they used to stream younows on YouTube as well
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animad wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:41 pm
Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:52 pm
No doubt they are fully diversified and have plenty of income streams that are lucrative more so than liveshow profits. My point though is that with Adsense driven by an ever changing algorithm and their merch store with large amounts of overhead and seasonal sales fluctuations, the live shows provide a stability in a sense that if everything else went to shit they could always jump on younow a couple times a month and still (with reasonable assumption) finance their current needs/lifestyle. I suppose it’s semantics, but that’s what I was driving towards.
What kind of figure do people think they make from live shows on each platform? Especially when they used to stream younows on YouTube as well
rizzo made a great post back in 2017 that estimated what Dan and Phil might have made per liveshow - just on younow, though, it didn't take into consideration revenue they might have made by streaming it off youtube too. (And undoubtedly there was some.)
rizzo wrote: Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:39 am Ah, yes. The price of liveshow messages has returned as a conversation topic, which means the time is ripe! Fun fact: I once got very bored at work and decided I would try to calculate how much Dip and Dot earn from a YouNow show. Here's how I did my math, if you're nerdy like that (and also if you want to help contribute on making this more accurate that would be gr8):
First and foremost, I looked at the top fans to see what they're contributing over 30 days and what the average drop off is as you get lower on the list. It's a lot more messy now, but even then, that fan-over-fan decrease is roughly 8% average starting from Jotalina's ~16k. We'll note this for later.

I'm going to be extremely conservative in my assumptions here, so bear with me. We know that the average viewership before moving the LS to youtube was roughly 20-25k users. Since the move, it's dropped down to 10k and I think we can be a bit wary and say that only half of those will put money into the show. So like... let's say 5k people decide they want to tip/send a message/etc. (After all, they're watching on YouNow, rather than Youtube or Tumblr, for a reason, right?)

The lowest amount of bars you can contribute during a D or P liveshow is 200, I believe, so that'll be our threshold. (Again, all of this math is really shoddy, because there could be a plateau at any point where users either contribute a lot or nothing at all. I'm guesstimating at best.) This is where I BS and fudge my math a bit more. Split the top fans' contributions by 2 (because this is based off of Dan's numbers and he's done 2 liveshows in that period). From there, each of the top fans contribute on average 8% less as we go down the list until they're contributing 200 bars and then I assume everyone from there on out contributes a minimum 200. I'm doing this over those 5k people we assume are paying in. That math puts us at ~1 million bars per liveshow (I'm rounding down).

The most popular price for bars is $9.99 for 1,200. But like, let's be conservative again and pretend everyone pays $49.99 for 6,500. That means each liveshow earns ~$7,691. Take YouNow's 30% and that's ~$5,384 per live show.

I've said "conservative" about a million times here, but let me clarify just how conservative this is: I am not accounting for the possibility of there being a plateau of like 1,000 people that each give 2000 bars/show (and this is very likely, as a lot of people only put money in for messages and nothing else). I'm also not accounting for the majority of people that buy bars at a higher cost. D&P also have ups and downs. On a particularly dramatic week, they may have/answer more messages than usual.
So, that's where we're at. Each show earns them a minimum of $5,000 (probably). If anyone has a deeper math background than me (I'm no financial analyst and maybe Rachel Riley is secretly a phan) and can improve upon my nonsense, please do!

So, like.... They can, and should, buy a house at this point. #TeamMovingInAugust
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Oh my god I didn't realise how much they earn from liveshows, damn! If I was paid $5000 to waffle for 30 minutes you bet I would never stop doing that easily.
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Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:52 pm
liola wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:16 am
Phantasy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:32 am
alittledizzy wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:41 pm I'm gonna throw out a theory for the liveshows: I think they will come back, because I think they're a very functional and low-effort way for Dan and Phil to convey things to us as a dedicated audience - and no matter how much you want to say Dan and Phil don't need to do things because they've already got financial stability, I do not believe they're at the point yet where they want to handwave things altogether. I think that if liveshows were going away entirely, they'd have ripped that bandaid off at the same time they told us about pinof and DAPG. Instead we got an emphatic reassurance that nothing else was changing, so for the moment I'm giving them some faith with that.

But I think we won't get liveshows until they've made a decision about what happens with DAPG, because I think they're not going to want to have to deal with a liveshow that's nothing but a flood of people asking about that and only that. I think once the channel is back, if it comes back, or they're ready to announce it won't come back at all, we'll get liveshows again - maybe not weekly, I'll give that concession, but on a regular basis.
I would agree. I think the live shows provide their most stable and consistent income stream as well and as you mention it’s such low effort. I reckon if you strip away all their other businesses, merch, and youtube, the livestream income pays for their core finances, so things like rent, utilities and food—so essentially the live shows are their 9 to 5 job, condensed down to 35-50min a week (with ample vacation time). Unless something changes with the payment model, I have to imagine they will continue in some form.
While I do agree that they probably won't kill liveshows altogether by announcing it and will just continue to use them as they please to announce things or solve any kind of communication issue, I don't agree with the bolded part. Liveshows for them in my opinion are money that come from extra hours at work, not the main income. It's been too unreliable especially in the past couple of years. If they are smart enough, and I think they are, they probably have investments in things that we don't even know about. It seems like a lot of old generation youtubers, especially in the UK, invested in properties and real estate and tangible assets that have a market. I'd be surprised if they didn't have part of their money invested outside their core businesses.

I think we can easily say that merchandising is their main income, along with Adsense money that they still get from all past videos. There's a reason why they don't do that many sponsorships compared to other people. So while I do think they don't mind the money from liveshows, I think it's less a concern (because again I do hope with the kind of net they have they were smart and invested it in something stable that is not tied only to their names)
No doubt they are fully diversified and have plenty of income streams that are lucrative more so than liveshow profits. My point though is that with Adsense driven by an ever changing algorithm and their merch store with large amounts of overhead and seasonal sales fluctuations, the live shows provide a stability in a sense that if everything else went to shit they could always jump on younow a couple times a month and still (with reasonable assumption) finance their current needs/lifestyle. I suppose it’s semantics, but that’s what I was driving towards.
I mean, yeah, I understand what you're saying, but I'm gonna be cheeky and note that if everything goes to shit and they're not making money off adsense nor merch, then it's unlikely they'd get enough money off younow for it to be considered a stable income source, because it would likely mean they've lost any kind of power over a dedicated audience.
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i know its naive, but they boldly told us when they announced the dapg hiatus, "we're not moving" and i almost want to believe that? i'm sure they have plans to move sometime... but they said not now?
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I can’t be sure now, but I remember noticing their liveshow viewer numbers going down to 4K each time, at least when they still did them solo, not sure if it was the same for the joint ones, but in 2015-6, maybe, Dan used to get 20k and Phil at least 8k, up to 20, and I’d noticed the huge drop in numbers.
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flarequake wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:23 pm I can’t be sure now, but I remember noticing their liveshow viewer numbers going down to 4K each time, at least when they still did them solo, not sure if it was the same for the joint ones, but in 2015-6, maybe, Dan used to get 20k and Phil at least 8k, up to 20, and I’d noticed the huge drop in numbers.
There was a huge drop in younow figures when they started also broadcasting to youtube. Not only did some people just prefer to watch it live on youtube but a lot of people appreciated knowing it was going to be permanently on the side channels and didn't try so hard to watch things live, they just went back and watched them later. Even through April of 2018 (which is when they stopped simultaneously broadcasting) the ones stored on youtube would get 200k-500k views later. I always assumed the lack of urgency of 'watch it on younow or worry that someone wouldn't have saved it' caused the drop in live numbers.
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alittledizzy wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:59 pm
flarequake wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:23 pm I can’t be sure now, but I remember noticing their liveshow viewer numbers going down to 4K each time, at least when they still did them solo, not sure if it was the same for the joint ones, but in 2015-6, maybe, Dan used to get 20k and Phil at least 8k, up to 20, and I’d noticed the huge drop in numbers.
There was a huge drop in younow figures when they started also broadcasting to youtube. Not only did some people just prefer to watch it live on youtube but a lot of people appreciated knowing it was going to be permanently on the side channels and didn't try so hard to watch things live, they just went back and watched them later. Even through April of 2018 (which is when they stopped simultaneously broadcasting) the ones stored on youtube would get 200k-500k views later. I always assumed the lack of urgency of 'watch it on younow or worry that someone wouldn't have saved it' caused the drop in live numbers.
I think this is one big reason, also that they've not done them on a schedule lately. Back in 2015-6 people knew to expect them on a specific time twice a week, but when they stopped doing that it became impossible to predict and work around it. People are at work, or asleep, or just out and about. The past year we've been given like an hour warning or less and I think that's a big factor as well.
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I absolutely adore Dan and Phil, but they are better than this. The fact that we have had no videos or live shows since before Christmas and it's now mid January and Dan hasn't even realy been active on his accounts. If it was a real job they would not have gotten away with not doing their job for so long. I miss them, but it's coming to a point where I don't know if I want to continue watching their videos. They haven't been active for ages and now all we are getting tomorrow is a Twitter live watch of interactive introverts even though a lot of us have already watched it now anyway. I would personally rather a video upload tomorrow.
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I just miss the dan howell style videos so much :( it's been so long
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Becky.rigby wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:28 am I absolutely adore Dan and Phil, but they are better than this. The fact that we have had no videos or live shows since before Christmas and it's now mid January and Dan hasn't even realy been active on his accounts. If it was a real job they would not have gotten away with not doing their job for so long.
I'll come out as defense squad here: please let them have a freaking vacation. It's totally normal to take a holiday from work without getting fired, especially in the UK. The average UK worker gets 28 days’ paid annual leave per year- or 5.6 weeks of holiday for a 5-day work week. Not to mention bank holidays, 3 of which fell in the last month.

I also believe they're back to working, they're just not public about it; there's a ton that goes into running a youtube empire beyond just what you see. You can miss them, but it's ridiculous to suggest that taking a month off of posting - part of which were bank holidays - is equivalent to a fireable offense. They've been doing this as their job for 9 years, I think a holiday is not out of the order, especially given that part of their job is to live their lives online publicly. I'm possibly more sensitive because I also work in media, and am also not allowed breaks according to my fans *headdesk*.

Also I miss them too.
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plinthofmylife wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:38 am I also believe they're back to working, they're just not public about it; there's a ton that goes into running a youtube empire beyond just what you see.
I’m actually really curious about this. I can never quite conceptualuse what their non-tour work entails outside the obvious filming and editing despite knowing that they’re both workaholics that spend a lot more time than the obvious working on stuff we may or may not end up seeing. I know they co-own IRL media, so I imagine a lot of their work is sort of management and communication? My interest was peaked by Phil saying he burns the candle at both ends and knows he works too late into the night in his fainting video.

(But I don’t have to know exactly what they’re doing to know they’re both people who work harder than is probably healthy and have as much right to time off as anyone else.)
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knq wrote: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:11 am I’m actually really curious about this. I can never quite conceptualuse what their non-tour work entails outside the obvious filming and editing despite knowing that they’re both workaholics that spend a lot more time than the obvious working on stuff we may or may not end up seeing.
I don't know about them specifically, but as someone who works in radio and runs a merch operations and has a lot of friends who are youtubers here are the things I suppose it involves based on *my* experience:
  • Meetings with lawyers and accountants about contracts and taxes (so many of these)
  • Meetings with people at the corporations who are their partners for various things (BBC, Google, Younow)
  • Travel planning for conventions and (previously) tour, which though I travel more than they do, took up 20% of my
    working hours until I hired someone
  • Writing scripts (takes me 4 hours to do for a 1 hour live radio show)
  • Making thumbnails and other graphic design-y stuff (bizarre amount of time)
  • PR stuff - agreeing to and/or turning down media requests and booking said things
  • Fucking emails. I don't even know what these are, some combination of all of the above but I spend 4-8 hours a week on these
  • Dealing with metadata and tagging and other things that break everytime youtube changes something
  • Coordinating with IRL about shipping and fulfillment planning - I sell 1/1000th of the merch they do, and I spend about 5 hours a week dealing with my fulfillment warehouse and they did multiple physical pop-up shops
  • Editorial planning work (next video planning; release dates; getting games needed to play)
  • Dealing with brand deals - I have an ad agency that works for me and handles most of the backend, but I still have to approve and negotiate stuff
  • Planning collabs
  • Photoshoots and planning stuff like that
  • Dan also says it takes about 20 hours to make a DINOF video - general rule of thumb is 1 hour of editing to 1 minute of final content
Last edited by plinthofmylife on Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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